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From Bethany, Age 16

Ht. 5'4", Wt. now: 198.5 goal: 165 - i know i haev asked this before, but ok. i weigh apporx. 198-199 pounds and i am 5'4". i started my diet about 2 months ago, and i was at 216 pounds. i am normally a big person, and i am big boned. if i keep up eating about 1600-1800 calories a day and walking about 1 1/2 miles a day, how much do you think i can lose by christmas? what do you think my goal weight should be? please reply and thanks for your help.